Clisle

What Winners Do To Win

2009-11-13T09:27:00.000+01:00

One of the things I continue to notice not only within my own trading circle of friends who trade for a living but also within my mentorship group is that the traders who outperform everyone else have an above average tendency for very strong comebacks. In other words, after they have a bad trade, the next trade is good. After they have a bad day, the next day they have a great day. After they have a bad week, the next week they have an even better week. And so on. Time and time again.

Based on my research, some have said that the reason for "comeback" tendency in high-performers has to do with the fact that after they make mistakes, they become even more focused and motivated than ever. And, that in turn produces better results. Sounds logical, doesn't it? But, I don't think that is completely true! In some traders I've seen them make a mistake and then follow that up with an even bigger mistake. A losing day, followed up with another losing day. A losing week, following up by another losing week. Sound familiar to you?

To understand what the difference may be, my research has indicated that winners tend to comeback not because they are more motivated or focused, but because 1) the level of their skills they posses simply is higher than the rest, and 2) their confidence in themselves and attitude remains positive even during the occasional setbacks that they experience. In fact, winners are more willing to "laugh it off" or find humor when they make stupid mistakes than take themselves and what they do too seriously or beat themselves up. They figure out the best way to correct a mistake is not to dwell on it but follow it right up with a great trade. What is done, is done, and they quickly move on.

I was reminded of this phenomenon over the weekend when watching the HSBC Golf Championship in China. Frankly, I've never seen a worst batch of shots by the world's best players than in the final round in this tournament. But, the winner, Phil Mickelson, displayed something I see in traders who outperform. After completely whiffing a chip shot, he smiled, laughed it off, and then followed that up with a good chip and then a long-putt to make his par.

Phil is known for his short game and he whiffed it in front of millions with everything on the line. He even sells a popular DVD (which helped me to move my handicap back down to single digits this year) on how to carry off that very same shot. Most golfers would have been so mad at the sheer embarrassment of it all, they couldn't make a par that hole if their life depended upon it. Instead, Phil smiled, understood mistakes do happen, and then went immediately back to work and made a number of good shots that enabled him to win the tournament.

The best traders do the exact same thing. They know and expect mistakes will happen but realize that if they're going to win, they need to follow up every mistake with a great trade. However, you can't do that if your mind and emotions are in the wrong place which is why not only have the right skills is important, but your attitude and confidence in yourself and in your strategy will play a more significant role in your ultimate success than you may currently understand and believe. And, that only comes through tireless practice and devotion to your game.

www.kirkreport.com, November 9, 2009

Yom Kippur und Wall Street

2009-09-25T18:32:00.000+01:00

Ich habe jedoch noch eine weitere Erklärung für die hohe
Volatilität dieser Woche: Am Montag ist der jüdische Feiertag
Yom Kippur. An der Wallstreet arbeiten viele Juden und sie
werden am Montag Urlaub machen. Dies ist inzwischen in der
ganzen Finanzwelt bekannt und so bereiten sich auch viele
Nicht-Juden auf den Feiertag vor, indem sie ihre Positionen
zuvor auflösen. Nach den Kursgewinnen der vergangenen Wochen
stehen da Gewinnmitnahmen auf der Tagesordnung.

Heibel-Ticker 0938

Experiances made by Charles E. Kirk

2009-01-26T10:07:00.000+01:00

On Selling

Use family realtors: The agent who sold our home had his own agency along with his wife and daughter. All three people had different strengths and weaknesses, but as combination they were a great team. We felt like we were getting three agents for the price of one. Our buyer agent also worked with his wife (i.e. spouses selling houses) and that helped him so that he could always put us at the top of his priority list. Bottom line, if you can get several agents working on your behalf for the price of one, in our experience that has been a better way to go.
Use a nearby realtor: We’ve found that if the realtor lives nearby (especially in your own neighborhood), they’ll tend to work harder for you than if they have to drive 30 minutes to get to your house for a showing. Time is money in real estate and the less time they have to spend traveling, the more time they’ll devote to selling your home.
Find an experienced agent: You really want someone who has been around longer than the last few years and who has experienced both good and bad real estate markets. Simply put, your agent can’t sell your home if they’re also having trouble paying their own bills and gas money. In addition, make sure you can cancel your realtor agreement at any time you see fit. Many agents will force you to stick with them for a certain period of time but the best agents will never force you into that type of one-sided relationship.
Only show buyers what you plan to leave: Before showing the house - make sure you remove anything that you want to keep. And, I mean everything! For example, we had several cheap Ikea shoe shelves in our home and the buyers specifically requested them even though we planned on keeping them. In addition, the way the housing market is right now, buyers are putting a lot of personal possessions into their offers so if you have something you can’t let go, move it out before you show.
Get your home staged: If you suck at decorating, admit it, and get the sucker staged. Both my wife and I enjoy and frankly spend far too much money on home decorating so this was not a big issue for us, but we have friends who refuse to stage because they think they shouldn’t have to. Frankly, if you don’t think your home is suitable for a magazine photo shoot, a good stager can be of tremendous help. The fact is that when people look at your home, they look mostly at the furniture and the lifestyle you live. The key to getting top dollar is to provide a buyer a lifestyle they can move into. If your lifestyle sucks, you need some help. So get it!
Clean it up & declutter: No matter what, make sure the home is clean (all of the animals are out of sight) and the clutter is gone. We visited many homes and we couldn’t believe the filth that some people live in and all of the junk they have. Once you decide to put your home up for sale, you no longer live there. So, move your crap and animals out, get it cleaned, and make your home fit for a king.
Get the hell out: If you’re having your home viewed by a prospective buyer, get the hell out. There were several homes we liked and would have considered more if the owners were not present during the showing. The owners made us feel uncomfortable and never helped us to like a house more by their presence. In fact, my favorite was the guy who decided to play guitar on his living room sofa to entertain us while we “looked around.” Although it was a nice home, we never gave that home much of a chance.
Make the repairs: Have a list of items in your home in need of repair (wall cracks, leaky faucets, etc.) and get them fixed, especially the visible ones. Most people want a turn-key solution and that includes having no items to repair the first day they move in. Offering a home warrantee for the first year is also an absolute must.
Be realistic: You never know what your home is really worth until you try to sell it. It doesn’t matter how much you’ve put into it, what it would cost to rebuild, and what others have told you (including your agent) regarding the home’s value. If you really want to sell it, find the true value and be prepared to go there to get it sold fast. Most homes don’t sell because home owners refuse to face the music and come fully to terms that they’ve purchased a losing investment. As we all know from the market, it is tough to admit it when we are wrong and take ownership in the consequences, but it must be done. Clearly, this is a tough pill to swallow now especially because so many are upside down in the homes, have used their homes as ATM machines, and ultimately owe far more than what the home is worth. Until this dynamic is changed in a significant way, I don’t see how the housing market will stage a big recovery.

On Buying

Buy what you can afford: It really is that simple. Try using some of the online mortgage calculators to get an idea of what you can afford and then cut those estimates by at least 25%. You never want to put yourself in the position that you and your spouse are sweating the mortgage payment every month. Indeed, bad stuff happens to people (family illness, large medical bills, loss of job, etc.) and none of us can entirely insure ourselves against those awful possibilities, but at the same time you want to give yourself plenty of room for error. The 25% difference will also allow you to “pay yourself first” and fully fund your retirement plans.
Take your time: Trying to force a quick relocation is a recipe for disaster. After all, learn from our mistake this year. This past July we were stupid enough to think that if we shopped for a new home in a week (it’s a small town, right?) that we’d be able to find the best place for our money. While we found a great builder and a very nice home, it was built on a flood plain known by many, but rarely disclosed by agents or builders. By sheer luck, the home was flooded two weeks prior to closing which saved us thousands of dollars. After that happened, we rented a home for awhile and pretty much spent all of our free time shopping for a new home. Although it is a tremendous hassle to move two times (once to the rental and again to the more permanent home), it is the best way to go. No matter how much you can learn about a new place, there is nothing that replaces actually living there for a time.
Do the research: A good agent will help tremendously, but like most things, you really need to know more than what the agent can or will provide you. This just takes a lot of time. Before all was said and done, we visited over 70 homes and the three homes we made an offer on, we visited several times (an average of 5 times) before making the offer. In addition, we did a lot of outside research as well. In fact, so much so that when our home appraisal came in, we were only off by $5K dollars. So, by visiting so many homes, we had a good idea of what our budget could afford and where the true values were. A few more extra tips: 1) Visit every house for sale in the neighborhood even if it is not in your target price range. This will help you understand the market and the fair value of the location. 2) Do drive-bys on the weekends. The neighbors are usually out and working on their yards and if you strike up a conversation with them you’ll discover things about your home and neighborhood that you could never have discovered in any other way. 3) If you know who built the home, get to know the builder and other homes he has built. If possible, talk to owners of those homes and ask them about their experience and problems so far. 4) Try to find a good value in an expensive neighborhood. Just three homes away we have a home that is 4 times as much as ours. 5) Location, location, location: find out where the realtors and the builders live and you’ll know the best place to start. It is by no coincidence that our new neighbors are both. In addition, you’ll need to research the foreclosures in your area to make sure you’re not surrounded by homes that will significantly sink in value.
Make a low offer & walk away: Though it is a very emotional decision to buy a home (even for an experienced trader), you have to adopt a robot mentality regarding this decision. Emotional decisions, much like in investing and trading, are wrong decisions. As our agent once told us, “Make them an offer. The worst thing that can happen is that they say no.” And, he is right. Figure out how much you think the home is worth (your agent can provide comparables concerning price to square footage, etc.) and then make an offer you know they won’t accept and walk away when they don’t. Although we did this several times to no avail, the home we purchased yesterday we made our original offer at the beginning of September. The owner refused to budge and negotiate, but as time went on, he changed his point of view. No doubt, the conditions of the market and economy these past few weeks played a significant role, but we were willing to stand our ground, make him a low-chance offer, and see what happens. After several months passed by, the owner became more motivated and had far reduced expectations, so we were ultimately able to get to a price we both could live with. In the end, your first offer should never be accepted if you’re doing your job. Keep in mind that most real estate agents will advise you to make an offer that has a good chance of success, but that is because they want to sell a home more than getting you the best price.
Hire a good inspector: Licensing requirements to be an inspector in Utah (and many States for that matter) is a complete joke. So we hired a man who builds homes for a living (in fact a competitor) to offer his own evaluation. A guy who builds homes is going to know a whole lot more than some joker selling themselves out as a licensed inspector. The good thing about this market is that many home builders aren’t working very much and they would love the opportunity to criticize another person’s work. That’s the type of inspector you really want.
Make the seller feel like a winner: One of the things I learned back in law school is how to negotiate. I took several classes on dispute resolution and fortunately many of those skills have stayed with me. One of the things I learned is that in any tough negotiation you have to ask for things you don’t really want so that you can give in later on provide the seller with the feeling that they have “won.” I have two examples here to share. In our old home, we had a 40 inch flat screen hung on the wall of our kitchen. Because I didn’t want to move it (plasma screens are notoriously tricky to move without causing damage) I purposely excluded it from the sale of our home. When our home was showed, my wife even put a sign on the TV saying that “this is not included in sale.” Sure enough, in the buyer’s offer we received, they said they wanted the TV to be included. This allowed us to give in to that demand (something that we wanted to do anyway since we didn’t really want to move it) but it made the buyer feel much better about the deal. Here’s another example. When we made the offer for our new home, we asked for several personal possessions that we knew would stir emotions (for example, like the fancy downstairs pool table). Although I enjoy playing pool as much as the next guy, it didn’t really matter to me that they left the possession so we asked for it anyway knowing that I could negotiate it out of the deal later on. This provided us more power in the negotiations. Bottom line, in your offer, ask for something you know the seller would have trouble with including so you can negotiate it out later on.
Your offer is more than the price: People tend to fixate on price when buying a home (the same is true for investors as well.) The trouble with that is there is much more than price involved. For example, our realtor tells us now that buyers are demanding that closing costs are included in the offer more and more as well as personal possessions. Bottom line - while price is important, consider the whole deal and negotiate accordingly. Another tip - always make your offer subject to an independent appraisal. Our agent has told us that many offers now are coming in above the appraisals so this is an important thing to work into the contract now. As a buyer, it will allow you to renegotiate your original offer later on if the appraisal comes in lower, which is happening more and more.
Think long term: Sad to say, many Americans over the past few years saw real estate as the opportunity to make a living and secure their retirements. The truth is that real estate, while a good long-term investment, is a poor one on a short-term basis. What we’ve seen recently is not unusual, especially following prior booms. The old rule that you have to live in a home for more than 8 years just to break even is something that will come back in vogue.
Know your goals and limitations: Just like trading and investing, you have to know your goals and limitations. When we moved to Utah, we considered several options. One of which was to buy a foreclosure or short-sells (perhaps several) and then spend time repairing and getting them ready for eventual sale. There were dozens of properties in good locations here that just two years ago were selling for more than $300K and now can be had for $150K or less. However, we ultimately decided that while that would be fun, it would take valuable time away from things we love to do more (our family time, trading, my wife’s career, golf, friends, etc.) and so we knew our limitations. There are tremendous opportunities in real estate for those with plenty of cash and patience, but you have to know what is right for you and make decisions in agreement with that first and foremost.
Don’t time the housing market: When we purchased our last home in 2004, we knew and often commented that we were timing the absolute top of the market. While the top wasn’t really found for another couple of years, we made the transaction anyway because it was both right for that stage of our life and we could live with the worst case scenario. Just like successful investing, know the worst case scenario first. If you can live with that, then you’re well on your way to finding the right opportunity for you and your family. Also, don’t put off buying a home because you think you can time the bottom and get the best price. If your family needs a bigger home now and you can afford it, don’t get caught up in the race to find the bottom of the housing market. Instead, put your family first and consider your home your castle, not a way to produce investment income. In my opinion and experience, there are easier ways to make money than real estate!

New Year's Resolutions and how to make them happen by Charles Kirk

2009-01-14T18:17:00.005+01:00

In recent posts, we’ve reviewed many lessons members said they had learned last year. However, what good is a lesson if we don’t use it as inspiration to change and improve our tactics in 2009?

This is why in the membership survey I first asked what members learned and then followed up with the question about what their new year’s resolution was (if any). I did this for two reasons. First, knowing what members’ lessons and goals are are helpful so I can plan future posts on those to help members meet those goals. Second, I also wanted to at least inspire members to think about what they’ve learned and to set a plan of action to making improvements if they hadn’t already done so. Resolutions, in many ways, are really plans of action to inspire change and improvement based on what we’ve already learned.

As I said a year ago, the very best way to make sure you stick to whatever resolutions we have set for ourselves is to 1) make sure someone holds you accountable for making that change and 2) that you set resolutions that are both specific and measurable. These two will go a long way to enable resolutions to inpsire true and lasting improvements in your trading and investing in 2009.

Let’s take a moment to review some resolutions members submitted in the annual survey and my comments to each have been provided within the parenthesis:

Keep things simple (simple is often better, but how will you accomplish this?)
Don’t be emotional (nice try, but you are human and when money is on the line, so will emotion. Unless you develop a auto-trade mechanical strategy that takes “you” completely out of the equation (and even that probably won’t work because you’ll want to tweak the system when it stops working the way you want), this resolution is going to be next to impossible to track & achieve. Sorry!)
Manage risk better (great, but how exactly do you plan to do that? What steps will you take to identify and manage your risk?)
To make some money this year (No kidding!)
Be patient (It is very difficult to measure patience and, in some markets, patience is not rewarded)
Always learn, learn, learn! (How are you going to learn? What’s your educational plan both for the short and long-term? What steps and activities will you undertake to learn more this year than in the past?)
Trade more options (Great, options trading has become mainstream (everybody is now doing it), but have you already proven to yourself that this is the right strategy for you for the right reasons?)
Increase my working capital (How exactly are you going to do that?)
To learn from my mistakes (What is the process you will go through to recognize the mistakes you make most often and how will you measure your progress?)
Learn more skills (What skills do you desire to learn & how do you plan to learn them? Many need to set up a business-plan like system so that they don’t get overwhelmed by the learning curve.)
To be better organized and prepared (Great - but what specific habits will you need to form to make any system work so it becomes routine?)
To let the market come to me (That’s good to a point, but opportunities aren’t just going to fall from the sky right to your screen.)
Don’t be influenced by those that make predictions (So, how will you do this? Turn off the TV? Stop reading websites? Identify the source and eliminate it)
Better timing on entries and exits (Everyone wants this, but how exactly do you plan to achieve it?)
Try harder (Working harder won’t necessarily translate into more profits for you. But, if you’re not doing the work that trading requires, figure out how much time and what activities you need to undertake to make up for the shortfall in 2009)
Look for great companies trading at low prices (don’t we all, but have you developed and track screens that do this for a period of time to assess their effectiveness? In addition, are you sure the market will also reward this particular strategy this year?)
Find only double digit gainers (good luck my friend!)
I resolve that my trading habit will feed me, not the other way around. (Yes, but what’s YOUR plan?)
Discipline (This concept is always stressed, but few know really what this means and have what it takes to do it. So, what are you going to do to develop the kind of discipline you think is required this year?)
Protect my principle (How?)
Trust myself more. (Great - but how are you going to develop the level of confidence this will require? Make a resolution based on action - not the end-goal and you’re likely to achieve what you desire.)
Be more conservative (There’s a time and place to be conservative, and not. What’s the process you plan to go through to know and recognize the difference?)
Be humble (Ok, but how do you plan to change your personality? What specific steps will you need to take and/or what activities will you engage in that will increase your humility in 2009?)
Follow my rules, all the time (Write down the rules & put into place a system that will monitor this (especially with an impartial observer if possible) and this can be a good one. Remember, be specific and detailed as much as possible!)
My resolution is to increase the value of my portfolio by 20% (That’s a goal - not a resolution. What’s the plan to increase the value? What steps are you going to take every day to hit that goal? How will you measure your progress?)
More due diligence, less guesses (Good, but how are you going to measure your “due diligence” and what specific steps or methods do you need to take to do more due diligence?)
Learn to enjoy trading again (this is very important, but how will you do this? Paper trade? Take more time off? Develop new strategies that are more in tune with your personality?)
Get back involved and over the depression for what I lost (great goal, but again, what’s the plan for you to move on and prevent past mistakes clouding your future potential?)
Don’t let me be my worst enemy. (Another good goal, but exactly how do you plan to achieve it?)
Keep doing what I’m doing (Come on - you have nothing to learn or improve in 2009?)

Now, compare and contrast these resolutions with others submitted:

Follow a daily checklist that varies for each day of the week, based on overall strategy and plan. Most of the checklist would be around building situational awareness and information processing, as well as setting entry/exit triggers and position sizing
Create a journal of all of my trades so I can review and learn from my mistakes
I will have entry, exit, and stops written down before making every trade
Read 2 books on your recommended list per month
I will learn and implement two new strategies involving currencies & single-stock futures in 2009
Risk no more than 5% to 10% per position
Take one topic use 15 minutes (or more) a day to study it until I have it under my belt
Commit to spending at 30 minutes on research everyday
More focus - at no time will I have more than 5 trading positions in play
Visulize one good trade for the day and details on how to execute the trade. After the market opens, focus on the setups and see if they have been touched
Proper diversification by holding no more than two stocks (or ETFs) for every sector
When filled with panic and fear, I will force myself to go long something that I think is too oversold
Trade my own view of the market by using screens and my research versus recommendations and opinions of others
I will find a mentor who can help me take my trading to the next level
Stop looking for the holy grail and quick short-cuts
I will focus my time and energy by unsubscribing to all newsletters & services
Continue to learn new styles of trading. One trading style cannot fit all markets
Trade on price and not opinions
Don’t buy anything until you see that it trades above its 50-day moving average
Never be affraid to sell at a small loss when the potential for a huge loss exists
Find new ways to obtain information on companies and go off the beaten path
Spend less time on-line reading opinions of others
Use more index investing and much less time trying to pick stocks
Be more selective about my investment/trading choices by applying more stringent guidelines
Never, ever, add to a losing position
Have a clear plan of what to do before the market opens
Eliminate personal distractions during trading hours by turning off the TV and the phone
To sit on my hands when I know I am out of sync with the market
I will learn to incorporate the use of Stochastics (overbought & oversold readings) into my analysis to improve my returns
Learn to use price & volume more effectively over many time frames
Trade from a properly back-tested system
Learn new patterns through paper trading. Then focus on those that work and which can be identified easily.
Take the time to further look into any security that I am interested in purchasing. Be better prepared before buying (and after) and have a good game plan.
Do not force trades when there isn’t one to make
I will no longer overtrade by narrowing the criteria I look for when looking for potential opportunities
Get financial house in order, then trade/invest without distraction
Create a safety net - I will always keep at least 10% of my portfolio in cash

Again, the key is to identify small, but actionable steps on the road for improvement. Many of the resolutions shared in the second group have these at least in concept, though most could certainly benefit by going a few steps further to identify specific steps that need to be taken to hit the goals you’ve set and to figure out to have someone else (spouse, friend, mentor) hold you accountable to the changes you’ve committed yourself to making this year.

Remember, we all want more success in 2009 and the way most of you will find it this year is by setting and writing down your goals, develop a plan of action to hit them that has small, but specific steps on the path to those goals, and create a system that will hold yourself accountable to making those changes. If you do this, you will be well on your way to making the changes you think you need to make to hit your goals in 2009.

About feeling down during the crisis, kirkreport.com

2008-12-05T09:13:00.003+01:00

Q: You sure do a lot of bragging. Between your “I’m grateful” Thanksgiving post to the new trading computer and fancy home, don’t you realize that people are suffering out there? I’m having a terrible year and I can’t possible stand one more post about how good your life is!

A: The website, as it has always been, is a reflection of my life both during the good and bad times. If you’ve read me long enough, you have already seen the other side as well.

Nevertheless, it is never my goal to brag and I feel terrible that was your interpretation of these posts. While the feedback I’ve received from those posts have been quite positive, I know that it can certainly be difficult to read anything positive when times are so tough for you and your family. It is my sincere hope that things improve for you and soon.

With that said, because you’re having such a tough time right now, you have to resist the urge to fill your life and attitude with more negativity. This is no time to wallow in misery or create a pity party for yourself.

Instead, put the year behind you, dust yourself off, and man up. All that matters now is that you make the best decisions for you and your portfolio and I’m here to help.

10/10 2008: No comment!

2008-10-10T17:35:00.004+01:00

Source: Patria

Nowhere To Run, Nowhere To Hide

2008-10-07T08:32:00.004+01:00

www.kirkreport.com, Monday, October 6, 2008 at 10:52 AM

Nowhere to run, and nowhere to hide. And with Dow 10K finally breaking and the VIX jumping above 50, I’m holding my nose again and putting cash in play. For what it is worth, my email indicator has turned exceptionally negative (i.e. 99% of the emails I receive indicate that people really think that the world is coming to an end). I know it is very bad out there, and realize that is a bit of an understatement, but I’ll take the other side of that trade even if only for a short-term rental.

Another simple explanation of what went wrong

2008-09-26T10:56:00.003+01:00

There is only one thing necessary to understanding what is happening and it is this: no one at US banks, no one at the Federal Reserve and no one in politics can accept the reality that real estate assets in this country remain oversupplied, overpriced and overleveraged.

It is that simple.

TAF, TSLF, SuperSIV, TARP, none of that matters. No matter what acronym is created to disguise the fact that assets are overpriced, or what government intervention is created to prop up those asset prices, the market will inevitably overpower it. This time is not different. In fact, it is continuing to play out almost exactly as the Great Depression did...

Source: nakedshorts.typepad.com

Simple Explanation of What Went Wrong

2008-09-26T09:02:00.001+01:00

the bubble in home prices, fueled by the ready availability of credit, resulted in an underestimate of the risks of residential real estate;
the peaking of residential home prices in 2006, combined with lax lending standards were followed by a very high rate of delinquencies on subprime mortgages in 2007 and a rising rate of delinquencies on prime mortgages;
losses thereafter on the complex “Collateralized Debt Obligations” (CDOs) that were backed by these mortgages;
increased liabilities by the many financial institutions (banks, investment banks, insurance companies, and hedge funds) that issued “credit default swaps” contracts (CDS) that insured the CDOs;
losses suffered by financial institutions that held CDOs and/or that issued CDS’s;
cutbacks in credit extended by highly leveraged lenders that suffered these losses.

Source: A Brief Guide To Fixing Finance

Trhy po oznámení, že bude vytvořen fond na odkup problémových aktiv

2008-09-21T16:22:00.003+01:00

Source: Patria

Schätzung des Unternehmenswertes nach Stephan Heibel

2008-09-01T08:22:00.005+01:00

am Beispiel von McGraw Hill an: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MHP

Umsatz und Unternehmenswert

6,7 Mrd. USD Umsatz werden mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von 12,8 Mrd. USD belegt. Bei zusätzlich 1,6 Mrd. USD langfristigen Schulden und 400 Mio. USD Barvermögen ergibt sich ein Unternehmenswert von knapp 14 Mrd. USD.

Operative Marge

Die operative Marge von 24% ist recht hoch und könnte in meinen Augen (das ist nun ein Bauchgefühl, das ich in den Jahren meiner Analysetätigkeit entwickelt habe) hinkommen. Wenn also aus den 6,7 Mrd. USD Umsatz ordentlich Gewinne erwirtschaftet werden, dann kommt also auch ein Kurs/Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV, alles über 1 ist hoch!) von rund 2 in Frage.

KGV

Schauen wir also einmal auf das KGV. Mit 14 ist auch hier zu sehen, dass trotz des hohen KUVs ein vernünftiges KGV erzielt wird. Die Bilanz ist also in meinen Augen sauber, das Bewertungsniveau geht so erst einmal in Ordnung. Ich brauche bei diesem Unternehmen keine Analysen zu lesen, da sich keine Fragen hinsichtlich des aktuellen Bewertungsniveaus ergeben haben.

Entwicklung des Umsatzes

Allerdings sehe ich, dass die Umsätze schrumpfen: Mit -6,1% sind die Umsätze doch stark rückläufig. Und bei den Gewinnen sieht es noch schlimmer aus: -43,6%. Wird das so weitergehen? Ich schaue mir nun die Prognosen der Analysten an: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=MHP

Ganz unten sehe ich die Next 5 Years Wachstumsschätzung: 6,7%. Na, das ist zwar nicht berauschend, aber immerhin positiv. Alles in allem ergibt sich also das Bild, dass das aktuelle Ergebnis ein negativer Ausrutscher war und dass das Bewertungsniveau, von dem Ausrutscher einmal abgesehen, so in Ordnung geht.

Ich habe nun also das Gefühl, die Bilanz und das Bewertungsniveau verstanden zu haben. Um eine Prognose über den Kursverlauf abgeben zu können, muss ich mir nun ein paar Gedanken zum Geschäft machen:

Gedanken zum Geschäft

McGraw verlegt Lehrbücher, gibt zahlreiche Zeitschriften und Fachpublikationen heraus. Gestern hat das Unternehmen seinen Quartalsbericht veröffentlicht. Darin wird lang und breit das geringe Wachstum der Randgeschäfte besprochen, der heftige Umsatzrückgang im wichtigen Verlagsgeschäft wird erst am Ende erwähnt. Ich habe keine gute Meinung von diesem Verleger, denn das Geschäft wird derzeit von allen Seiten angegriffen: Das Verlegen ist kosten- und zeitaufwendig. Viele Bereiche werden von Online-Medien abgelöst, denn die sind aktueller und günstiger.

Insbesondere in wirtschaftlich schweren Zeiten beginnen die Werbekunden zu sparen - und dabei wird offensichtlich, dass die Werbekosten in Zeitschriften und ähnlichem viel höher sind, als Online. Und der Rücklauf von Printmedien kann kaum gemessen werden, Online können Sie jedoch minutiös ihren Werbeerfolg tracken. Es werden derzeit also jede Menge Werbegelder in den Online-Bereich verschoben, McGraw Hill leidet darunter.

Die Ansprüche der Printmedienkunden steigen, die Lehrbücher wurden in diesem Jahr einen Monat später in Auftrag gegeben, um aktueller zu sein. McGraw Hill muss die Infrastruktur ausbauen, um diesem gestiegenen Zeitdruck gewachsen zu sein.

In meinen Augen ist McGraw Hill in der Melkphase des Geschäftes, sollte also eine hohe Dividendenrendite haben. Doch die ist mit 2% nicht gerade berühmt. Dann lese ich noch von Umstrukturierungskosten in dem Geschäftsbericht und ich weiß nun endlich, dass dem Unternehmen das Geschäft wegbricht und händeringend neue Geschäftsfelder gesucht werden. Ob das gelingen wird, das weiß ich heute noch nicht. Aber warum sollte ich mich darum kümmern? Es gibt besser aufgestellte Unternehmen, die keine Altlast im Printbereich haben, wie McGraw Hill. Ich würde also auf eine Gegenbewegung setzen und meine Anteile versilbern und in eine andere Aktie anlegen.

Konjunkturzyklen

2008-08-26T07:51:00.006+01:00

www.heibel-unplugged.de

Rabi Nilton Bonder: Jidiše kop

2008-06-08T11:29:00.006+01:00

Na dveře slavného učence rabi Schwartze zaklepal pětadvacetiletý mladík.
"Jmenuji se Sean Goldstein," představil se. "přišel jsem , abych pod vaším vedením studoval Talmud."
"Umíte aramejsky?"
"Ne."
"Hebrejsky?"
"Ne."
"Studoval jste Tóru?"
"Ne, rabi, nestudoval. Nic se nebojte, s vyznamenáním jsem vystudoval filzofii na Kalifornské univerzitě a právě jsem na Harvardu dokončil dizertační práci o sokratovské logice. Chtěl bych teď své vzdělání doplnit studiem Talmudu."
"Vážně pochybuji," pravil rabín, "že jste na studium Talmudu připraven. Je to naše nejhlubší kniha. Pokud si ale přejete, vyzkouším Vás z logiky. Pokud uspějete, budu Vás učit."
Mladík s rabínovým návrhem souhlasil.
Rabi Schwartz vztyčil dva prsty. "Dva muži se spustí do komína. Když vylezou, jeden z nich má tvář špinavou, druhý ne. Který z nich se umyje?"
Mladík na rabína chvíli zíral. "To je otázka z logiky?"
Rabu přikývl na souhlas.
"Umyje se muž, který má špinavou tvář," zodpověděl mladík otázku.
"Špatně. Umyje se muž, který má tvář čistou. Je to logické. Muž s špinavou tváří se podívá na muže, který tvář špinavou nemá a myslí si, že je čistý. Muž s čistou tváří se podívá na muže, který má tvář špinavou a myslí si, že je špinavý. Takže se umyje muž, který má tvář čistou."
"To je chytré," přiznal Goldstein. "Položte mi další otázku."
Rabi vztyčil dva prsty. "Dva muži se spustí do komína. Když vylezou, jeden z nich má tvář špinavou, druhý ne. Který z nich se umyje?"
"To už jsme vyřešili. Umyje se muž, který má tvář čistou."
"Špatně. Umyjí se oba. Je to logické. Muž s špinavou tváří se podívá na muže, který tvář špinavou nemá a myslí si, že je čistý. Muž s čistou tváří se podívá na muže, který má tvář špinavou a myslí si, že je špinavý. Takže se umyje muž, který má tvář čistou. Když to ale muž se špinavou tváří vidí, rovněž se umyje. Takže se umyjí oba."
"To mě nenapadlo," přiznal Goldstein."Chyby v logice nedělám často. Položte mi další otázku."
Rabi vztyčil dva prsty. "Dva muži se spustí do komína. Když vylezou, jeden z nich má tvář špinavou, druhý ne. Který z nich se umyje?"
"Umyjí se oba."
"Špatně. Neumyje se ani jeden. Je to logické. Muž s špinavou tváří se podívá na muže, který tvář špinavou nemá a myslí si, že je čistý. Muž s čistou tváří se podívá na muže, který má tvář špinavou a myslí si, že je špinavý. Když ale muž s čistou tváří vidí, že se muž se špinavou tváří mýt nehodlá, rozhodne se rovněž neumýt. Takže se neumyje ani jeden."
Goldstein si zoufal. "Vím toho dost, abych mohl studovat Talmud. Položte mi ještě jednu otázku."
Když rabi vztyčil dva prsty, Goldstein zaúpěl. "Dva muži se spustí do komína. Když vylezou, jeden z nich má tvář špinavou, druhý ne. Který z nich se umyje?"
"Ani jeden."
"Špatně. Už chápete, proč vás na studium Talmudu sokratovská logika nepřipraví? Řekněte mi, jak je možné, aby se dva muži spustili do stejného komína a jeden měl tvář špinavou a druhý ne? Copak to nechápete? Celé je to hloupost a pokud strávíte život snahou najít odpovědi na hloupé otázky, budete nacházet jen hloupé odpovědi."

Thinking out of the Box

2008-06-08T09:11:00.002+01:00

Řídíš a jedeš si sám v autě. Je noc a venku je hrozná bouřka. Právě projíždíš kolem autobusové zastávky a vidíš tam stát hlouček lidí:

1. Starou paní, která vypadá velmi nemocně, tak že jí do smrti chybí snad jen pár minut.
2. Starého přítele, který ti jednou kdysi zachránil život.
3. Perfektní ženu, o které jsi celý život snil.

Koho by jsi vzal k sobě do auta, s tím, že tam máš místo jen pro jednu osobu?

Před tím než budeš číst dál, zamysli se nad touto otázkou. Je to morálně/etické dilema, které bylo jednou použito jako část přijímacího pohovoru do zaměstnání. Můžeš naložit starou paní, protože umírá, a proto by jsi ji měl zachránit jako první. Nebo můžeš naložit s sebou starého přítele, protože ti zachránil život a ty mu to můžeš splatit. A nebo se ti už nikdy v životě nepodaří najít perfektní milenku.

Kandidát, který vyhrál pohovor (z 200 uchazečů) neměl problém s odpovědí. Co řekl?
......
......
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Jednoduše odpověděl: Dal bych klíče od svého auta nejlepšímu příteli a nechal by jsem ho odvézt nemocnou paní do nemocnice. Zůstal bych na zastávce a čekal bych na autobus se ženou svých snů.

Někdy doopravdy získáme víc, když jsme schopní vzdát se našich myšlenkových omezení. Nikdy se nezapomeň dívat na věci ZVENKU.
......
......
......

Ale i tak by měla být správná odpověď takováto: Srazit starou a osvobodit jí od utrpení, přefiknout ženu na zastávce a potom odfrčet se starým kámošem na pivo.

Rates for consulting services (April 2008)

2008-04-29T14:14:00.015+01:00

CZK/EUR = 25

Kirk on how to use the information on his web by long-term investors

2008-03-17T10:20:00.001+01:00

Q: As a long-term investor, I find it difficult to understand how best to utilize your recommendations. For example, one day you say “prepare for counter-trend rally” and the next “prepare for the worst.” How is that helpful?

A: Great question. Because I discuss both short-term trading plans as well as a big picture view, it can be confusing at times. From a long-term perspective, here’s how I recommed you take my comments this week. First, understand that we’re likely to see a rally in the near-term, but that the market is in a confirmed downtrend cycle until proven otherwise. I clearly laid out what to look for if the worst is truly behind us in this post.

How you use that information will greatly depend on how you’re currently position in the market. For example, if you’re sitting in cash, you should think about using oversold conditions (even though were in a downtrend) to put money to work. Long-term investors don’t need to worry about timing the bottom, but instead finding the best prices for their investments. Oversold conditions will provide that, even in midst of a larger downtrend. Second, as a long-term investor, you probably have stocks that have turned against you and which have broken down in recent weeks. In fact, in your objective analysis, you may now think those stocks have more downside risk than upside potential in this environment. If so, the oversold bounces we see (if any) should provide a good selling opportunity for you. You don’t want to buy and hold bad stocks in bad markets or let small losses get bigger. Capital preservation is paramount in a tough market no matter what your time horizon may be. As Warren Buffett says, the first rule is not to lose money. The second rule is to see the first rule. My suggestion, know the trend first and foremost and use the counter-trend rallies as they should be used - to adjust and reposition into strength.

Zentiva 9M2007 with 12M2007 still to come

2008-03-07T12:32:00.007+01:00

Katsenelson Predicts

2008-03-07T11:37:00.001+01:00

The US economy will slip into a recession which will last longer than those of the past. The longer this recession lasts – the longer it will last. Economic weakness will feed on itself and cause higher unemployment, which will cause further defaults on loans, and so on.

The defaults in the financial sector will reach higher levels than we saw in the last recession.

Lending standards will go from extreme promiscuity to the level of a store manager in the sitcom Married with Children, when a store manager, tired of Al Bundy’s bounced checks, asked him for “cash and three forms of ID”.

This will also spill over into corporate sector. In many instances it already has: access to capital markets has of late been considered a birthright, but it is quickly turning into a privilege reserved for elite few and, in many, cases a source of competitive advantage.

Oversupply of houses and tighter lending standards will cause the housing market to recover slower than many expect (or are hoping).

Worst case, we will take the rest of the world into a recession. Slowdown in growth will send the Chinese economy into deflationary spiral. We’ll learn that the prosperity of the Chinese economy came at the expense of a pile of bad loans which were covered up by high growth. Exposure to BRIC countries that used to be considered an asset may quickly turn into a liability. The global commodity boom will turn into a bust.

Finally, corporate profit margins will prove unsustainable. They are at all time high (40% above the mean), soon to embark on the journey toward mean reversion, where corporate earnings will either decline or growth will decelerate. Stock may not appear so cheap anymore. Some of these scenarios are possible; a lot of them are probable. The economy (and especially the global economy) is too complex, with too many forces working against each other. Their sequence, timing, the weight of the impact, the unintended consequences… all is impossible to predict, though economists will try. Yogi Berra said “It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future”, and he is so right. I don’t know, nor does anyone else. But identifying very possible risks is a very important part of money management, so they must be hypothetically considered.

Jaký bude rok 2008

2008-01-09T09:26:00.000+01:00

Tady je několik názorů:

od Finančníka.cz
od ForexPeaceArmy
od ...

Proti encyklopedismu

2007-10-21T10:46:00.000+01:00

J.G.Herder: Je jedno, na čem (na jakém učivu) se nůž (žákův intelekt) brousí, bude-li ostrý, lze jej později použít na cokoli.

Searching For Answers

2007-08-03T08:40:00.000+01:00

Briefing.com: Their ticker search is fast and helpful. That will pull up any news-related event for most stocks (upgrades, downgrades, earnings, etc.). However, if the stock is not widely followed, it may not show up.
MarketWatch: This service is free, but if you want to know the latest buzz, their search engine can prove useful. I just usually enter the ticker symbol and look over the links presented.
The Fly On The Wall: Works the same way as Briefing.com, but there are times that one will pick up a news-related item that the other has not. There is a bit of an overlap, but one of the main reasons I use the Fly is its tight integration with Quotetracker. Essentially, any news-related item on any stock I'm watching tags an automatic alert which I can access through a simple click.
PR Newswire: In some stocks, especially ones that don't receive a lot of attention from Wall Street or analysts, you'll have run a search at the press release websites. This is the most time-consuming option, but if a stock is really acting up, you may want to do some searching there.
EDGAR Database: It takes time and a bit of knowledge about what to look for, but the EDGAR database is also a helpful resource. Over the past few years, their search functions have really improved making this a useful resource.

Source: www.kirkreport.com

Index Investing

2007-07-18T13:45:00.000+01:00

According to Gus Sauter, traditional indexing will work best if growth stocks surge
Robert Arnott and John Bogle clash over best indexing strategy

ETF staff but still index related

ETF homework is required
...

Reframing Strategies

2007-06-09T05:41:00.000+01:00

The annual market’s seasonality is here again

2007-04-25T11:20:00.000+01:00

by Sy Harding from www.StreetSmartReport.com:
It’s that time of year to remind you again of the market’s annual seasonality

Quotations

2007-04-09T22:31:00.000+01:00

There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.
Steven Wright US comedian and actor (1955 - )

About the most originality that any writer can hope to achieve honestly is to steal with good judgment.
Josh Billings US Humorist (1818 - 1885)

Large versus Small

2007-04-09T21:40:00.000+01:00

Largest companies: 6+7+5=18 ys

Smallest companies: 4+9+3+8=24 ys

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors, Merriman Capital Management

Lessons:

Size of companies really does make a difference
One size doesn’t fit all investors forever
Large companies will be the next winners. The big question is when this will come :)

Tiger21 - investment club comprised of super-rich members

2007-04-03T13:25:00.000+01:00

Asset allocation - 30% stock, slightly less than 28% is in real estate, 15.6% is in fixed-income investments, 8.8% is in private equity, 9.6% is in alternative investments such as hedge funds, and 9% is in cash
3% rule - 3% of assets annually to live is the maximum one can spend each year before stressing one's portfolio and tilting it towards short-term income over long-term gains
holding 9% of assets in cash allows the club members to withstand three years of market distress without having to liquidate long-term holdings at unnecessary losses
members with the most direct and long-term experience in the markets often cite the historically low credit spreads and growing convergence of returns between different asset classes as underlying concerns for the future.
Most members cite fixed income, cash, and diversification as the elements of their portfolios which give them most comfort
more ...

Energieschachbrett

2007-03-26T13:30:00.000+01:00

1. - 3. fossile Energieträger: 80% des weltweiten Energiebedarfs

1. - 4. nichterneuerbare Energieträger

6. - 10. erneuerbare Energieträger

derzeitiger weltweiter Energieverbrauch beträgt ca. 85 Mio. Fass Erdöl pro Tag oder ca. 30 Mld. Fass Erdöl pro Jahr

Osobnostní typologie

2007-03-26T09:15:00.000+01:00

Poznání osobnostního typu je důležité zejména při práci v týmu. Potenciální konflikt hrozí u typů v diagonále: Vizionář versus Procesní typ a Fakta versus Vztahy.

The Luck Factor: The Four Essential Principles by Richard Wiseman

2007-03-21T09:15:00.000+01:00

Capitalize on chance opportunities - get out of your psychological ruts in order to make yourself available to new experiences that you will benefit from
Respect your intuition - don't overanalyze your decisions
Expect good things to happen - positive outlook encourages others to help you and keeps you from giving up in the face of adversity
Find the silver lining in "bad luck." - when bad things happen focus on the bright side

Jak si ušetřit stres - důležité a naléhavé úkoly

2007-03-19T10:59:00.000+01:00

Pozornost se obvykle koncentruje na Naléhavé a současně Důležité úkoly. Z hlediska rozložení úkolů a správného rozdělení zdrojů - zejména časových - je ovšem neméně důležité podívat se na úkoly v oblasti Důležité a současně Může počkat. Právě tam se nacházejí úkoly, které nejsou včas řešeny - vždyť přece mohou počkat - aby se pak dostaly do oblasti Důležité a Naléhavé a způsobovaly zbytečný stres.

5 fresh themes for international investing

2007-03-19T10:20:00.000+01:00

Strategists divulge 5 fresh themes for international investing

1. Environment: increasing efficiency in the energy and water areas; (1) Saint-Gobain, (2) Suez , (3) Ebara Corp. and (4) Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co.
2. Central banks mistakes - three-month money rates with core inflation numbers virtually identical: 5.5% in the U.K., 3.5% in Europe and 2.5% Switzerland
3. Emerging markets polarisation - these markets are far from a homogenous set of countries and companies, Taiwan, Korea and Thailand - extremely compelling valuations, India, Philippines and Malaysia - valuation case is much more difficult as these markets have had big runs.
4. Holistic and integrated approach to international exposure for US investors - e.g. international small caps, emerging markets and developed markets are converging e.g. Korea, Taiwan or Israel
5. Recovery stories that have not participated in the liquidity run of the past eight months or even three years e.g. german real estate sector, which has been flat over the past five years, missing out on the global real estate boom; EuroCastle Investments NV, IVG Immobilien AG, Orco Property Group

Die 10 Megatrends des Jahrhunderts nach Wirtschaftswoche

2007-03-09T10:43:00.000+01:00

Welt im Netz: Internet
Zwergen-Bonanza: Nanotechnik
Länger leben: Biotechnik
Heiße Phase: Klimawandel
Die Aufsteiger: Asien
Kräfte des Markets: Englisch
Ein Pulverfass: Demografie
Ab in die City!: Urbanisierung
Bessere Lösungen: Frauen
Bunt und flexibel: Arbeitswelt

ETF providers

2007-03-03T11:33:00.000+01:00

Europe

Société Générale; LyxorETF
Indexchange AG; Tochter der Barclays Bank plc, erster deutscher Anbieter
AXA; EasyETF
...

Barclays Capital; iShares; Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Russel Index, Standard&Poors
Merril Lynch; HOLDRs
State Street; SPDRs
Vanguard; VIPER
WisdomTree;

Check-list zadání pro tvorbu webových stránek

2007-02-18T16:27:00.000+01:00

Název

pokud existuje název webových stránek před zadáním jejich tvorby lze jej zaregistrovat (název již nikdo "neukradne") a návrh webovek lze průběžně monitorovat (v doméně se vytvoří zkušební podadresář a vytvářené stránky se umístí do něj).

Stránky

statické versus dynamické: jedná se pouze o "leták na internetu" nebo bude docházet k průběžné aktualizaci stránek - redakční systém (např. aktualizace ceníku, upozornění na nové služby, upoutávky na články/zprávy v médiích, atd.)?; pokud aktualizace ano, má být zajišťována interně nebo externě?
má být součástí stránek emailová služba? např. info@nazevstranek.cz popř. další individuální adresy?, pokud ano kolik a jaké?
grafický návrh stránek včetně příp. loga - existuje již nějaká představa?; stručný popis rozsahu popř. obsahu/struktury stránek např. (1) úvod - logo, fotka(y), úvodní text, (2) nabízené služby - popis, fotka(y), (3) kontakty, (4) ... ;
odkazy na stránky na internetu, které mohou služit jako inspirace ať již svým obsahem nebo formou
cz, de, en - stránky pouze v češtine nebo i v jiných jazykových mutacích, pokud ano má být překlad součástí dodávky?
...

Doplňkové služby

zaregistrování domény
výběr poskytovatele hostingových služeb a zajištění hostingu (umístění stránek na server poskytovatele hostingových služeb); hostingové služby se liší různými parametry služeb např. garance dostupnosti, FTP, atd. - souvisí s požadavky na aktualizaci a obecně s významem, jaký mají mít webovky v podnikání
...

Ostatní

dodací lhůta
předběžný rozpočet
reference

Idea map on Retirement Portfolio Management

2007-02-18T15:12:00.000+01:00

to be worked on it on continuous basis ...

Lazy Portfolio

2007-02-14T10:55:00.000+01:00

The Kirk Report on Lazy Portfolio

William Bernstein; No-Brainer Portfolio
Bill Schultheis; Coffeehouse Portfolio
Ben Stein; Retirement Portfolio
Frank Armstrong; Smoothie Portfolio; his website
David Swensen; Yale Portfolio
Ted Aronson; Lazy Portfolio

IFA; fee-only financial planning house with focus on index investing with a nice risk capacity survey
ETF Experts; Discover the power and potential od ETFs
Fundadvice; for the do-it-yourself investor

Miscellaneous

2007-02-12T10:04:00.000+01:00

Pavel Kohout; Mentální účetnictví a finanční omyly chytrých lidí

Stock-picking Strategies/Tools

2007-02-11T18:35:00.000+01:00

Correlation tracker; correlating price movements for individual stocks and ETFs
Harry Domash´s favourite screens; stock candidates worthy of further research
Sector strategy that attempts to rotate in/out of sectors using the SPDR ETFs

Useful links

2007-02-11T18:20:00.000+01:00

Retirement

FundAdvice.com; mutual funds, retirement, active risk management and more ...
Paul Merriman; personal blog
Scott Burns Columns 2007; Couch Potato Portfolio, personal finance and investments
...

Trading

How to use stop-loss by Thomas N. Bulkowski
...

Money

Andrew Tobias on money and other subjects

ETF Stop

2007-02-11T17:52:00.000+01:00

Online resources

ETF Center at Finance.Yahoo.com
Morningstar.com
ETF Screen
Seeking Alpha's ETFs

ETF providers

Barclays
State Street Global Advisors
Vanguard

Kdy je vlastně nejlepší začít spořit na důchod?

2007-02-11T13:15:00.000+01:00

Tuhle otázku si v poslední době pokládá stále více lidí. A to je dobře. A že je mezi nimi i nemálo mladých lidí, je ještě lepší, protože správná odpověď zní: co nejdříve.

Že to není jenom fráze, ale holý fakt lze doložit následujícím příkladem. Představme si dva mladé lidi, kteří právě ukončili střední vzdělání. První z nich bere své zajištění na důchod velice vážně a je rozhodnut začít spořit od první chvíle, kdy to bude možné. Ať již to bude několik stokorun z prvního pravidelného příjmu nebo z letní brigády popřípadě přilepšení od rodičů, je připravený si v zájmu lepšího zabezpečení na penzi i ledacos odříct. Začne tedy spořit počínajíc 19. rokem věku například 1.000 Kč měsíčně.

Ten druhý si řekne, že není kam spěchat, vždyť ještě ani nezačal pořádně vydělávat. Počká tedy několik let a poté začne spořit na důchod a bude v tom pokračovat až do řekněme 65. roku svého věku. I on bude spořit stejnou částku, tedy 1.000 Kč měsíčně.

Otázka zní: Po kolika letech bude moci první mladý člověk přestat spořit a spolehnout se pouze na sílu složených úroků zhodnocujících jeho dosud naspořené peníze tak, aby měl naspořeno zhruba tolik, kolik jeho druhý kolega s tím, že ten začne spořit (a bude pokračovat až do již zmíněných 65-ti let) ve chvíli, kdy první spořit přestane?

Odpověď na tuto poněkud kostrbatou otázku je zřejmá z přiloženého grafu.

Tady vše podstatné ještě jednou v podobě tabulky:

Závěr:

• Doba zhodnocování úspor hraje klíčovou roli. Čím dříve se začne, tím vyššího zhodnocení úspor se dosáhne.
• Zhodnocování úspor - úroková sazba - hraje rovněž klíčovou roli. Při takto dlouhém investičním horizontu (47 let) lze i z hlediska konzervativního investora vycházejíc z historických zkušeností zvolit investici s vyšší kolísavostí, ale zato s vyšším zhodnocením.